COPENHAGEN, May 7, 2025 — Novo Nordisk lowered its annual sales and profit forecasts on Wednesday for the first time since launching its blockbuster obesity drug Wegovy, reflecting stalled prescription growth in the United States despite expanded supply. Still, investor confidence remained intact, with shares rising nearly 6% after the company pointed to a likely rebound following an impending U.S. crackdown on copycat drugs.

The Danish pharmaceutical giant now expects 2025 sales growth in local currencies of 13% to 21%, down from its earlier 16% to 24% projection. Operating profit growth is now forecast between 16% and 24%, compared with the previously anticipated range of 19% to 27%.

Despite weaker-than-expected first-quarter Wegovy sales of 17.36 billion Danish crowns ($2.64 billion)—a 13% drop from the previous quarter—Novo Nordisk told investors it expects a sales rebound beginning in June. The optimism is tied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's May 22 deadline for compounding pharmacies to stop producing unauthorized copies of Wegovy and its diabetes counterpart, Ozempic, which have captured an estimated one-third of the U.S. obesity drug market.

CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen acknowledged the scale of the impact on a call with journalists, saying the widespread distribution of unapproved compounded versions “dampened” growth and caught the company off guard. “It’s unprecedented in our industry,” he said.

In a further boost to investor sentiment, CVS Health—America’s largest pharmacy benefit manager—has dropped Eli Lilly’s rival obesity drug, Zepbound, from some of its reimbursement lists, potentially strengthening Novo’s footing in the market. Zepbound prescriptions had outpaced Wegovy since mid-March, raising concerns that Novo was losing its competitive edge.

Still, shareholder confidence remains relatively high. Markus Manns, portfolio manager at Union Investment, said the downward revision in guidance was largely expected. “It’s seen as a clearing event and people are hoping for a sales inflection in June from the exit of compounders and in July from the preferred CVS formulary status,” Manns said.

Beyond market dynamics, Novo faces geopolitical headwinds. With former President Donald Trump pushing for new pharmaceutical tariffs to spur domestic manufacturing, global supply chains have come under renewed pressure. However, Jorgensen dismissed the risk, stating Novo has a significant U.S. footprint, with over 10,000 employees and multiple production facilities. “We export more from the U.S. than we import,” he said.

Novo has not announced new manufacturing plans in the United States, unlike several competitors, but the company has invested more than $24 billion in the country over the past decade.

Despite the softer top-line forecast, Novo Nordisk reported first-quarter earnings before interest and tax of 38.79 billion crowns, exceeding analyst expectations and up 22% year-over-year. The company remains Europe’s most valuable drugmaker by market capitalization, though its peak valuation of $615 billion has dropped by half amid recent challenges.

As the FDA prepares to eliminate the grey market for compounded weight-loss treatments and with CVS narrowing formulary access to rivals, Novo Nordisk’s recalibrated guidance may yet prove conservative—if U.S. demand for Wegovy rebounds as expected.