COPENHAGEN, May 8, 2025 – Shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk issued a warning Thursday that global container volumes could decline this year due to escalating trade tensions and geopolitical instability. Despite these concerns, the company maintained its earnings outlook for the year.

In its latest statement, Maersk, often regarded as a key indicator of global trade activity, adjusted its 2025 forecast for container volume growth to between a 1% decline and 4% increase, down from the 4% growth it had initially predicted.

"The outlook for global container demand over the remainder of the year remains highly uncertain, shaped by a rapidly evolving trade policy landscape and increasing recession risks in the United States," Maersk said.

The company noted that U.S. trade tariffs, particularly those imposed by former President Donald Trump, have forced companies worldwide to lower sales targets, contributing to a dampened demand for shipping goods. Maersk emphasized that these tariff-related disruptions were a "demand shock" to the global economy.

Despite the challenges, Maersk indicated that it anticipates market growth in the second quarter, driven by customers building inventories in response to the 90-day pause in U.S. tariff impositions. However, the company also expressed caution, stating that the second half of the year presents risks of a contraction in demand, though a trade rebound could also occur if tariffs are reversed.

The company’s customer base includes major retailers such as Walmart, Target, and Nike. Maersk revealed that it had not canceled any trans-Pacific crossings this year but had downsized certain vessels in response to shifting demand. In contrast, German competitor Hapag-Lloyd reported that 30% of U.S.-bound shipments from China had been canceled in recent months.

The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations remains a major concern for Maersk, with the company warning of the possibility of a broader trade war if Chinese exporters redirect lost U.S. exports to other markets.

Despite the uncertain global trade climate, Maersk maintained its EBITDA forecast for 2025, projecting earnings between $6 billion and $9 billion. The company’s first-quarter EBITDA rose 70% year-on-year to $2.71 billion, surpassing analyst expectations.

Red Sea Disruption Continues

Maersk also noted ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea, which have impacted shipping routes. The company acknowledged the challenges posed by attacks on vessels by the Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen, despite recent statements by President Trump suggesting a ceasefire agreement.

Although Maersk and its competitors have benefited from higher freight rates due to longer sailing times around Africa, the situation remains fluid. The Houthis later clarified that their ceasefire did not include Israeli ships, leaving uncertainty around the full resolution of attacks in the region. However, there have been no reports of Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels since January.

As geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties persist, Maersk remains cautious yet focused, adapting its operations while maintaining a clear emphasis on profitability and stability.