WASHINGTON, Sept. 19, 2025 — The delayed publication of the US jobs report and the Consumer Price Index, or CPI report, could affect the Federal Reserve, which is considering the possibility of further rate cuts.

 

The government shutdown and the resulting halt in key economic data have made smaller businesses nervous, as they continue to monitor the situation closely.

 

Critics of President Trump are even suspecting a ‘possible faking’ of the economic data after Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, shortly after the August 1 jobs report showed sharply slower jobs growth than expected for July and significant downward revisions to data from June and May.

 

While Trump, without evidence, accused McEntarfer of manipulating the reports for ‘political purposes,’ analysts expressed their differences, highlighting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics was a top-notch statistical agency.

 

The US sets a high standard for data quality, said Michael Heydt, the lead sovereign analyst at rating agency Morningstar DBRS, in an interview with CNN. Heydt said the BLS in particular is a world class institution.

 

William Beach, a former BLS commissioner, told CNN previously that ‘there’s no way’ for McEntarfer or others to rig the data. ‘By the time the commissioner sees the number, they’re all prepared, they’re locked into the computer system,’ he said. ‘There’s no hands-on at all for the commissioner.’

 

Statistical Revisions are a New Normal Globally

 

Large Revisions: While economists show full faith in efficiency of the BLS, large-scale revisions in the bureau’s data have raised eyebrows, not just during August but in the past months as well.

 

A point in case is the preliminary annual revision in August 2024, which revealed the US economy had added 818000 fewer jobs over the past year than previously reported.

 

These are the sort of large revisions that could hint at deeper issues like how the BLS gets their data and constructs their economic models, Kathryn Rooney Vera, the Chief Market Strategist and Chief Economist at financial services company StoneX, told CNN.

 

‘Several economists and research teams I personally engage with have flagged these as structural issues with the data long before Trump’s involvement or the firing of the BLS chief,’ Rooney Vera told CNN.

 

Budget Cuts: Robert Shapiro, the Chairman of economic advisory firm Sonecon and a former Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs under President Bill Clinton, told CNN that budget cuts by the BLS have added to the ambiguity.

 

The BLS has already said that, compared to its normal data collection, it will reduce this activity due to lack of staff. This essentially means it can take longer to get to final numbers for data releases.

 

Other Data Collection Sources

 

As far job reports go, major conglomerates usually respond with information first. Smaller companies have a tendency to be lagging behind. ‘And so, you get a lot of responses that come in after the date when the initial estimate is put out,’ Shaprio said, leading to revisions.

 

Despite all odds, US has other sources of data, both public and private, to put out a consolidated picture of the economy. Shapiro pointed to the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

‘These institutions are made up virtually 100 per cent by statisticians and economists,’ Shapiro told CNN. ‘They are utterly nonpolitical in their jobs.’

 

What Could Fed Do Without Key Economic Data?

 

Delay in publishing key economic data could pester the Federal Reserve, which is mulling the prospect of further rate cuts ahead of its next meeting in October.

 

‘For as long as the government shutdown goes on, we will be operating a little bit blind. But we think that in this current economic environment, it still makes sense for the Fed to cut in October,’ said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan.

 

In the continued absence of key economic data, the longer-term outlook is not positive enough for the economy.

 

‘It’s going to be challenging to discern what this means for the direction of Fed policy. If the shutdown is lengthier, it could muddy the waters about how markets price the likelihood of any rate cuts past December,’ added Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan.