Croatia’s Supply Cut Puts Central Europe’s Non-Russian Oil Plans Under Pressure

BRATISLAVA / ZAGREB, Oct. 28, 2025 — Slovak refiner Slovnaft raised alarms after Croatia’s pipeline operator JANAF reduced deliveries of non-Russian crude. The cut affects roughly 90,000 tonnes of Arab Light crude, which Slovnaft had expected to process to increase its share of non-Russian feedstock to around 50 percent during October and November.

The timing could not be more sensitive. Slovakia and Hungary have been working to diversify their oil sources away from Russian pipelines while following EU regulations and sanctions. The Adriatic pipeline through JANAF has become a key alternative, but this supply cut shows how quickly plans can be disrupted when a single point in the chain falters.

Why Did the Supply Drop Happen

Slovnaft says the cut represents a breach of contract. JANAF reportedly diverted the volumes after halting supply to Serbia’s NIS, a Russian-owned refiner facing U.S. sanctions. The Croatian operator used Slovnaft’s scheduled volumes to maintain pipeline pressure, leaving Slovak operations vulnerable.

The situation also highlights a broader vulnerability. Central Europe’s efforts to move away from Russian crude remain dependent on limited alternative routes. A disruption in one pipeline can ripple across the entire regional supply chain, showing that infrastructure and contractual safeguards are not yet fully resilient.

Regional Consequences of the Supply Cut

The reduction in non-Russian crude deliveries to Slovnaft highlights the wider implications for Central Europe. The Adriatic pipeline has been a key alternative to Russian supply, but this disruption shows how quickly the regional oil network can be stressed. Policymakers and refiners must now rethink supply routes and coordination to avoid repeated interruptions.

Challenges to Diversification Goals and Energy Security: The cut threatens Slovakia and Hungary’s plans to reduce reliance on Russian crude. In 2024, Slovnaft processed 4.8 million tonnes of crude, yet only about 662,000 tonnes were from non-Russian sources. Losing even part of this volume puts broader diversification goals at risk and raises questions about the region’s capacity to maintain energy independence.

Strains on Alternative Feedstock and Infrastructure: The incident exposes limitations in alternative supply chains and the infrastructure supporting them. Switching volumes to other routes or suppliers requires time, additional costs, and careful management of terminals, pipelines, and scheduling. Even as countries pursue diversification, bottlenecks, logistical constraints, and geopolitical pressures continue to influence every barrel of crude entering Central Europe.

Can Central Europe Stabilize its Oil Supply?

The key question is whether Slovnaft and its neighbours can adjust before the disruption grows into a wider supply problem. Finding alternative crude is possible, but it requires time, investment, and careful coordination. Transport costs, terminal capacity, and scheduling constraints make substitution challenging.

Contract enforcement, EU sanctions compliance, and geopolitical pressures add another layer of complexity. Any effort to redirect supplies must account for regulatory hurdles and the competing needs of other refiners along the network.

Central Europe’s energy stability will depend on how quickly stakeholders coordinate, adjust contracts, and keep pipelines and ports operating efficiently. The coming weeks will show whether this cut is a temporary setback or a sign of deeper vulnerabilities in the region’s non-Russian oil strategy.

Future Implications

The JANAF-Slovnaft disruption serves as a warning that diversifying oil supplies involves more than securing new sources. Infrastructure limitations, contractual fragility, and external pressures continue to shape how well strategies succeed.

For Slovakia, Hungary, and the wider Central European market, the event may accelerate efforts to develop additional routes, expand storage capacities, and strengthen regional cooperation. Refiners will need to ensure contingency plans are in place so supply interruptions do not escalate into broader energy shortages.

The situation also offers lessons for EU energy policy. Even when countries set ambitious diversification goals, operational realities including pipeline capacity, regulatory constraints, and geopolitical volatility can complicate execution. How these challenges are handled over the next months will determine whether non-Russian crude can become a dependable pillar of Central Europe’s energy supply or remain a fragile alternative.

Refiners and policymakers now face the challenge to adapt or risk deeper disruptions across the region.

Inputs from Diana Chou

Editing by David Ryder