Fossil Fuels will Remain Dominant in Global Energy Mix Beyond 2050, McKinsey Says

NEW YORK, Oct. 16, 2025 — McKinsey’s latest report shows that the world’s shift to cleaner energy is moving more slowly than many expected. Solar panels, wind farms, and other renewable technologies are expanding quickly, but they still cannot keep up with the growing demand for electricity driven by urban growth, industrial expansion, and our increasingly digital lives. Fossil fuels, oil, gas, and coal, remain the backbone of the global energy system because they are reliable, scalable, and affordable.

Today, these fuels make up about 64 percent of the world’s energy supply. By 2050, McKinsey estimates that share will drop to somewhere between 41 and 55 percent. That’s a decline, but it’s smaller than previous forecasts suggested, showing just how resilient the existing energy infrastructure is, from pipelines and refineries to power plants. Concerns over energy security only strengthen this trend, as countries hesitant to risk interruptions in their power supply continue to lean on oil and gas.

What’s Driving the Demand?

The biggest factor behind the continued reliance on fossil fuels is the fast-growing demand for electricity across industries, homes, and technology sectors.

Data Centers: Data centers are among the fastest-growing energy users. In the U.S., their consumption is projected to rise nearly 25 percent annually until 2030, while global demand grows 17 percent per year. Cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and streaming services are fueling this surge. Without efficiency improvements or renewable adoption, data centers will remain heavily reliant on fossil-fueled electricity.

Industrial and Residential Sectors: Industrial and residential electricity consumption is also climbing. Manufacturing, heavy machinery, and building heating and cooling are projected to increase electricity demand by 20–40 percent by 2050. Many facilities are slow to adopt low-carbon technologies due to costs, regulatory hurdles, or lack of alternatives. Coal-fired plants, still economical in some regions, prolong dependence on fossil fuels.

Can Renewables Bridge the Gap?

Renewables are expanding and could account for 61–67 percent of power generation by 2050, mainly in electricity. Costs for solar and wind continue to fall, and battery storage is improving, yet adoption in transportation, heavy industry, and heating lags.

Alternative fuels such as hydrogen and biofuels face barriers. Hydrogen production and storage are costly, while biofuels compete with food production and land use. Even electric vehicles are not yet enough to replace global gasoline and diesel demand. Policy frameworks, incentives, and international cooperation will be essential to accelerate adoption. Without these interventions, fossil fuels will continue to play a central role.

Why Achieving Climate Goals Will Be Difficult

The persistent role of fossil fuels complicates climate objectives. Energy security, affordability, and geopolitical instability often outweigh emissions reduction priorities. Even optimistic renewable adoption will not fully offset fossil fuel consumption by mid-century. Achieving net-zero will depend on carbon capture, industrial electrification, and efficiency improvements.

Emerging economies’ rising energy consumption and investor caution in divesting from profitable fossil fuel ventures add complexity. The energy transition will be uneven, with developed countries advancing faster while developing regions continue to rely on oil, gas, and coal. This divergence will shape markets, geopolitics, and climate strategies for decades.

The world’s energy system is set to remain a mix, with fossil fuels continuing to play a critical role for decades to come.

Inputs from Diana Chou

Editing by David Ryder